Als seek return to win column in clash with Bombers

Football Betting Lines

08/18/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to bounce back from just their second loss of the season, the Montreal Alouettes entertain the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at McGill Stadium on Thursday night.

According to the most recent power rankings in the CFL, this matchup pits the second and third-strongest clubs against each other, despite the Blue Bombers having just two victories on the season thus far.

Last week the Bombers were handed their third straight loss and the fifth in the last six attempts as they bowed to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats by a final of 39-28. In a matter of just seven weeks, the matchup marked the fourth time the two division foes had met and left Hamilton with a 3-1 season series advantage as a result.

Buck Pierce was back in as the starter at quarterback for the Blue Bombers, but he failed to make much of a difference as he completed just 7-of-12 passes for 63 yards, leading to one touchdown and one interception. Head coach Paul LaPolice felt Pierce had trouble moving and his lack of mobility was throwing off his accuracy, so the head coach decided to insert Steven Jyles back into the lineup. While the backup signal-caller didn't lead his team to victory, he did manage to convert 14-of-22 passes for 227 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The other problem that arose for the Blue Bombers just before the game started was an injury to kicker Louie Sakoda, thus causing the team to change its game plan.

As for the Alouettes, a team that was leading the Eastern Division with a 5-1 mark heading into its contest with Toronto last weekend, they were dealt a surprising blow in their 37-22 loss to the Argonauts on the road.

Quarterback Anthony Calvillo converted 37-of-49 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns, to go along with one interception, but early in the game there was a question about his ability to hold onto the ball due to an injured finger.

The Als started off the meeting slow, failing to score a single point in a quarter for the first time this season as they were blanked in the opening frame. Calvillo did up his all-time touchdown total to 369 in the decision, leaving him just 25 behind the CFL's all-time leader, Damon Allen, but surely the signal-caller would have preferred the win instead. Heading into the matchup with Toronto the Als had dominated the series, winning seven in a row over the Argos.

Despite the setback, slotback Ben Cahoon continued his assault on the history books as he reeled in a game-high 10 passes for 99 yards. With the effort Cahoon moved into second place all-time on the CFL receptions list, moving past Darren Flutie who had 972 catches in his 12 seasons. Now in his 13th campaign Cahoon, who has advanced his streak of 134 games with at least one reception and is third all-time behind Don Narcisse (216) and Tony Gabriel (137), is up to 981 catches for his career and trails only Terry Vaughn who was responsible for 1,006 receptions during his amazing career.

Even though Calvillo had a huge game in terms of numbers last week, the situation with his hand is still a concern for the Als, not to mention the lack of productivity from running back Avon Cobourne who gained a mere 26 yards on 11 carries. It was the second straight week that Cobourne had posted a weak effort, having logged just 34 yards on seven attempts versus Saskatchewan. The Als were expecting Cobourne to have a game that was much like the effort he put together against Toronto at the end of July when he gained 115 yards on the ground and another 116 yards through the air, but it just wasn't meant to be.

Because of the last two weeks, Cobourne has dropped to seventh in the league in rushing with only 403 yards on 82 attempts, while someone like Winnipeg's Fred Reid is fifth in the CFL after seven games with his 499 yards, averaging better than six yards per attempt.

The big question for this game will be which quarterback will be seeing the most action for the Blue Bombers. But whether it is Pierce or Jyles, the main target down the field will remain the same. Averaging close to 20 yards per catch, Terrence Edwards has been eating up the yards for the Bombers and ranks second in the league with his 687 yards at the moment. His seven touchdown catches, two of which he made last week, have him pacing the entire league. The rest of the pass catchers on the Winnipeg roster have combined for only five TD receptions, so that says a lot about how valuable Edwards is to the success of this group.

Conversely, as big a game as Cahoon had for the Als last weekend, he has still not made it into the end zone in 2010 and is averaging barely half the yards (10.5 per catch) that Edwards is at the moment.

According to league records, Montreal maintains a 39-32-7 advantage over the Blue Bombers in regular-season meetings dating back to 1946, the most recent of those encounters taking place last November with Montreal posting a 48-13 win. A week earlier it was Winnipeg that thumped the Als in a 41-24 decision on its home field.

The teams are scheduled to collide two more times during the regular season, on September 24 in Winnipeg, and back here again in the middle of October.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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