Blue Jays bomb their way past Yankees

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill both knocked in three runs to help the Toronto Blue Jays beat New York, 7-3, and salvage the finale of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium.

Wells hit a two-run homer in the first inning and Hill matched him in the third, while John Buck added a solo shot off New York starting pitcher Phil Hughes (16-7).

Brett Cecil (12-7) allowed three runs on seven hits and walked four over 6 1/3 innings for the Blue Jays, who lead the majors with 208 home runs this season.

The loss snapped the Yankees' season-high winning streak at eight games. New York maintained its 2 1/2 game lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East after the Rays were beaten by Baltimore on Sunday.

Hughes was tagged for six runs and seven hits in six innings for the Yankees, who welcomed back Alex Rodriguez. The All-Star third baseman was activated from the disabled list Sunday after missing time with a strained left calf. He went 2-for-5 with an RBI in his return to the lineup.

A pair of 0-2 mistakes by Hughes to Wells and Hill resulted in a 4-0 lead for Toronto.

The Yankees got on the board in the bottom of the third. Greg Golson doubled to open the frame, advanced on a Ramiro Pena single and came home on a sacrifice fly by Brett Gardner.

Hill increased Toronto's lead to 5-1 with a sac fly in the fifth, and Buck went deep in the sixth to give the Blue Jays a five-run advantage.

Jorge Posada doubled home Marcus Thames for New York in the home half of the sixth. Toronto, though, got the run back in the seventh, when Yankees reliever Sergio Mitre issued a bases-loaded walk to Wells.

Rodriguez plated Pena in the bottom of the inning to trim New York's deficit to 7-3.

Game Notes

Hill and Travis Snider each had three hits for Toronto...New York first baseman Mark Teixeira walked three times...The Yankees have not won nine straight since May 13-21, 2009...New York also had won eight in a row at home...The Blue Jays lead the season series, 8-7.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

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A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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