Quality Road rebounds to win Woodward Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Quality Road shook loose at the head of stretch Saturday to win the $750,000 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. It was the colt's fourth win in five starts this year.

The colt, trained by Todd Pletcher, was coming off a narrow defeat four weeks ago to Blame in the Whitney Handicap. He was 1-4 in the morning-line and went off as the 3-10 pick in the seven horse field. More than $800,000 was wagered on Quality Road to show.

Ridden again by John Velazquez, the four-year-old broke sharply from the gate along with Arcodoro. David Cohen and Arcodoro took the lead entering the clubhouse turn followed closely by Quality Road. Mythical Power was racing third and Mine That Bird was close up in fourth.

Quality Road assumed the lead around the far turn as Mythical Power advanced on the outside into second. Mine That Bird, 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, began to tire.

Coming out of the final turn Quality Road opened up from his competition and was never challenged down the stretch. The colt hit the wire 4 3/4-lengths in front of second-place finisher Mythical Power.

Tranquil Manner finished third followed by Convocation, Indian Dance, Arcodoro and Mine That Bird. Ramon Dominguez replaced Kent Desormeaux as the jockey on Indian Dance. Desormeaux suffered an injury Friday at Saratoga when his horse broke down during the second race.

Quality Road covered the 1 1/8-miles in 1:50 on a fast track.

Quality Road returned $2.60, $2.10 and $2.10. Mythical Power paid $5.90 and $4.40, and Tranquil Manner paid $4.80 to show.

Owned by Edward Evans, Quality Road adds $450,000 to his lifetime earnings which now total more than $2.2 million. In his career the colt has won eight of 12 starts. This year his bankroll amounts to $1,260,000.

Before his loss in the Whitney, Quality Road had won three straight stakes to begin the year, the Hal's Hope Stakes, Donn Handicap and Met Mile.

In 2009 Quality Road won the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Florida Derby and Amsterdam Stakes. He was third in last year's Travers and second to Travers champ Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He had to be scratched at the gate in the Breeders' Cup Classic when he became excitable when being loaded.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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